Last week, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange climbed nearly 4%, settling above 162,000 yuan per tonne and reaching its highest level since July 8. According to a research report from Tongguan Jinyuan Futures, the resumption of production at CATL's Xijiawo spodumene mine has become the market's focal point. As the world's largest proven lepidolite mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 100,000 tonnes, its restart is expected to significantly alter supply expectations and serve as the core catalyst for future trading.

Smart Finance APP has learned that a report from CSC Financial suggests the lithium supply side is caught between tight near-term realities and looser long-term expectations, a dynamic that continues to stir market sentiment. The pace of production resumption at Jiangxi lithium mines remains a key variable. Despite the gradual arrival of Zimbabwean lithium shipments, raw material supply remains tight, limiting production recovery. Demand has stayed steady, with downstream material producers continuing to make just-in-time purchases at low prices, some already building inventories for September. Buying enthusiasm for price-locking and restocking has been strong at levels below 150,000 yuan per tonne. With the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season approaching, spot purchasing volumes are expected to strengthen further.

Market inventories have continued to decline, with SMM data showing a large-sample inventory of 78,800 tonnes this week, a further reduction of 7,600 tonnes, marking nine consecutive weeks of accelerating destocking. With September downstream production schedules expected to rise, the low-inventory trend is likely to persist. As the consumption season arrives, lithium prices may shift from forward-looking pricing to spot-based fundamental pricing, and the outlook for lithium prices during the peak season remains positive.

Recently, Soochow Securities released a report projecting that global energy storage demand growth could be revised upward to 73% in 2026, reaching 1,111 GWh, with a further 40%+ increase to 1,572 GWh in 2027. The lithium carbonate supply chain looks set for price increases, with the sector poised for simultaneous volume and margin growth.

Several Hong Kong-listed companies in the lithium-related industrial chain stand to benefit. Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) reported first-half revenue of 12.242 billion yuan, up 153.32% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 4.242 billion yuan, a surge of 4925.46%. On a quarterly basis, second-quarter net profit was 2.366 billion yuan, up 26% month-on-month. The company attributed the substantial profit growth to higher lithium product prices and increased sales volumes of lithium compounds and derivatives compared to the same period last year.

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772) posted 2026 interim results with revenue of approximately 22.884 billion yuan, a 1.77-fold year-on-year increase, and a turnaround to a profit attributable to owners of the parent company of around 4.258 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the prior year period. Basic earnings per share stood at 2.04 yuan. The company noted that the revenue increase was mainly driven by significantly higher average selling prices for its lithium series products year-on-year, coupled with rising storage demand that boosted lithium battery segment production and sales, jointly lifting revenue and profit.

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (02899) reported in its half-year results that its "third growth pole" lithium division has begun making meaningful contributions, with lithium carbonate equivalent production reaching 44,000 tonnes, a substantial year-on-year increase. Cngr Advanced Material Co.,Ltd. (02579) has secured lithium resources in Argentina, with controlled reserves exceeding 10 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The company is developing the Jama and Solaroz salt lakes, both located in the core of South America's "lithium triangle." According to its plan, production is expected to commence gradually from 2028 onward. In the long term, these resources will be integrated into the company's global supply chain to support its integrated "resources—smelting—materials—recycling" strategy.

LOPAL TECH (02465) delivered its 2026 interim results, with revenue of approximately 7.198 billion yuan, up 98.75% year-on-year, and a swing to a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 421 million yuan. Basic earnings per share were 0.59 yuan. The company attributed the revenue growth primarily to higher income from its lithium iron phosphate cathode material business during the reporting period. It also formally launched construction of Phase I of its 120,000-tonne high-compaction lithium iron phosphate production facility in Jintan, Changzhou, and plans to advance a further 120,000-tonne lithium iron phosphate capacity project in Indonesia under its Phase III plan.