During the Asian trading session on September 3, Bitcoin recovered to trade above $77,600, marking a 24-hour gain of approximately 1.5% after dipping to a low of $76,400 during the New York session.

XRP led gains among major cryptocurrencies, rising nearly 3% to $1.36. BNB advanced close to 2%, trading just below $692, while Solana climbed 2% to approach the $100 threshold. Tron added about 1% to reach $0.33, and HYPE held steady above $82. Ethereum lagged its peers, trading just under the $2,400 level.

Over the past week, Ethereum has shed nearly 4%, Tron fell about 3%, XRP declined approximately 3%, and Bitcoin dropped around 1%. Zcash and HYPE were the only major tokens to maintain weekly gains.

Analysts at Bitfinex noted that the average cost basis for active investors on the Bitcoin network stands at $76,350. Bitcoin found buying support at a level less than $50 above this price point. This threshold has been absorbing sellers who entered the market between February and March this week, allowing them to exit at break-even rather than at a loss.

However, analysts also issued a cautionary note, pointing out that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin performance, with an average return of -2.95% since 2013. They anticipate that while a monthly pullback is likely, the broader upward cycle should remain intact afterward.

On the geopolitical front, fresh strikes launched by the United States near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices significantly higher and rekindled inflation trades. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed above 4.8%, reaching its highest closing level since 2023, while the U.S. dollar index approached the 100 mark.

In U.S. equities, the S&P 500 closed at 7,646 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 277 points, and gold traded near $4,418 per ounce.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve on September 16 stands at 62%, down from 67% the previous day but well above the roughly 37% recorded a week earlier, prior to Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Interest rate futures markets have fully priced out any possibility of a rate cut.

Friday's non-farm payrolls report will serve as a critical reference for the September meeting decision. Downside protection in the options market is concentrated in the $68,000 to $75,000 range, corresponding to the window between the employment data release and the CPI report scheduled for September 11. Should the non-farm payrolls miss expectations, compounded by Wednesday's already weak ADP data, the odds of a rate hike would decline further, potentially allowing Bitcoin to retest the $80,000 level.