Britain's energy trade association has reported that household energy arrears in Great Britain climbed to approximately £6 billion by the end of June 2026, setting a new record high. The figure, which includes overdue payments, increased by around £500 million over the past year. The association's calculation uses a 30-day overdue threshold, while the regulator's published figure is lower because it only counts debts exceeding 90 days past due, a difference of roughly £1 billion. The trade body projects that without new intervention, the total could rise to £7 billion by year-end, though this remains an industry forecast rather than an audited official figure.

More than three million households are currently in arrears or behind on payments, with the average household owing approximately £1,800. Bad debts that cannot be recovered are being spread across all customer bills. Under the current calculation, a typical household pays around £50 extra per year, representing about 3% of an average annual bill. Should the total escalate to £7 billion, the association estimates an additional £10 to £15 could be added to each bill. A partner at consulting firm Baringa noted that roughly 70% of the outstanding debt is unsecured, and more than half of the accounts have been overdue for over 12 months, suggesting a significant portion may never be recovered.

The regulator has previously discussed writing off approximately £500 million in debt for the most vulnerable customers, a proposal that would require legislation and has since stalled. The trade association is advocating for a long-term social discount tariff for low-income, disabled, or vulnerable households, arguing that existing temporary measures are insufficient. The association's chief executive stated that warnings were issued earlier this year that the situation would worsen without action, as rising debt pushes up bills for everyone and threatens supplier finances. The policy deputy director added that no policy currently in sight can effectively curb this problem. It is important to note that these figures come from the industry body, and neither the regulator nor the government released matching new debt statistics on the same day.

The current price cap, effective from 1 July to 30 September 2026, stands at approximately £1,663 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit under updated usage assumptions, or about £1,862 under the old usage basis. Unit prices, including 5% VAT and national direct debit averages, are set at 26.11 pence per kWh for electricity with a daily standing charge of 57.19 pence, and 7.33 pence per kWh for gas with a daily standing charge of 29.04 pence. Compared to the April-June period, gas prices have risen about 28% and electricity about 6%, combining for a roughly 13% increase. This cap, effective from 1 July, already incorporates July inflation data, with UK CPI at 2.9% year-on-year, and the statistics office noting the largest rise in gas prices in nearly four years.

Consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts that the next cap for October to December will be approximately £1,729 per year under the new usage basis, about £66 more than the current £1,663, or roughly £1,941 under the old usage assumptions. Projected unit prices are 26.57 pence for electricity and 7.90 pence for gas, which would mark the highest unit prices in three years. The forecast accounts for the government's planned removal of VAT on household electricity from 1 October, a measure that does not cover gas. Wholesale gas prices remain the largest single component in the cap formula, with Middle East conflicts and grid upgrade costs also cited by the association as contributing factors. The regulator is required to announce the formal October-December cap on or before 26 August, and Monday's industry figures on debt are separate from any new cap announcement.