On the geopolitical front, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that American forces launched strikes on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military bases in the region. President Donald Trump stated that the scale of the strikes was "massive and powerful," and warned that any Iranian retaliation would be met with even more intense and higher-caliber responses. Following the latest round of attacks, Iran's armed forces announced they have initiated operations against the U.S., with Iranian missiles and drones targeting American bases and interests in the area.

Meanwhile, a fresh wave of heavy selling has swept through global bond markets, driven by rising energy prices, heightened inflation expectations, and shifting monetary policy outlooks from major central banks. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025. Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time in three decades, while the 30-year JGB yield surged to an all-time high of 4.18%. The U.K.'s 30-year gilt yield reached its highest point since 1998, and both German and Australian 10-year yields hit levels not seen since 2011.

Turning to futures market activity on September 1, 2026, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 961.10 yuan per gram and closed at 959.94 yuan per gram, marking a 0.21% decline from the previous trading day's settlement. Trading volume stood at 41,087 lots with open interest of 129,725 lots. During the overnight session, the contract opened at 944.86 yuan per gram and settled at 941.12 yuan per gram, down 1.96% from the previous afternoon's close. For silver, the main Shanghai contract opened at 16,280.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 16,245.00 yuan per kilogram, a 0.29% drop from the prior session. Volume reached 466,603 lots with open interest of 232,963 lots. In overnight trading, silver opened at 15,850 yuan per kilogram and closed at 15,749 yuan per kilogram, a 3.05% decline from the prior afternoon.

On the U.S. Treasury front, the 10-year yield closed at 4.75% on September 1, 2026, up 0.06% from the previous session. The 10-year versus 2-year yield spread stood at 0.41%, narrowing by 0.08% day-over-day. Examining the Shanghai Futures Exchange positioning data, the Au2610 contract saw long positions increase by 3 lots and short positions decrease by 3 lots. Total gold contract turnover was 290,720 lots, down 63.98% from the prior session. For the Ag2610 silver contract, long positions fell by 44 lots while short positions rose by 2 lots, with total volume of 780,175 lots, a 61.09% decrease.

In terms of exchange-traded fund holdings, gold ETF holdings rose by 4.28 tonnes to 1,046.636 tonnes, while silver ETF holdings remained flat at 15,359.92 tonnes compared with the prior session. The domestic gold premium stood at -9.89 yuan per gram, while the domestic silver premium was -103.63 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 59.09, a 0.09% change from the previous session, compared with an offshore ratio of 65.50, which fell 2.40%.

Fundamentally, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+D market saw gold trading volume of 31,104 kilograms on September 1, 2026, a 54.57% decrease from the prior session. Silver volume totaled 307,200 kilograms, down 22.60%, while gold delivery amounted to 11,872 kilograms and silver delivery reached 18,120 kilograms.

Strategy Outlook

Gold: Neutral. With geopolitical conditions deteriorating, risk sentiment is emerging in the markets, which may slightly dampen demand for gold as a safe haven. Consequently, gold prices are expected to trade in a consolidation pattern, with the Au2610 contract likely oscillating between 930 yuan per gram and 960 yuan per gram.

Silver: Neutral. Given similar underlying logic to gold, silver is also expected to consolidate, with the Ag2610 contract range projected between 15,300 yuan per kilogram and 16,300 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage: On hold. Options: On hold. Risks include overseas liquidity risks and continued exit of speculative positions.

This report is based on publicly available information deemed reliable, but no guarantee is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed herein reflect judgments as of the report date and may not remain current. Investors should conduct independent analysis and bear full responsibility for their investment decisions.