On Tuesday, September 3rd, the analysis of the gold market trend unfolds. The rebound high of 4398 seen during Wednesday night's trading session was surpassed on Thursday morning, further confirming the structural pattern of a decline at the start of the week and a rally towards its end. This directional bias can be determined from two key factors. First, as long as the morning pullback low at 4380 remains unbroken, any dip should be viewed as a chance to join the uptrend. Second, the US Dollar Index broke below the critical 99.64 level overnight, and as long as any bounce today stays beneath this threshold, the bias for gold prices remains bullish.
On the chart, immediate resistance for gold is seen at the 1-hour Bollinger Band upper rail at the 4430 mark. This is followed by the confluence of the 4-hour MA120 and MA30 moving averages, which cap upside near 4450. Further up, the next barriers are identified at the previous gap-fill highs of 4463 and 4472. The most significant upside resistance is currently the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail at 4493. On the downside, attention first turns to the psychological support at the 4400 round number. Below that, support levels are found at the 4-hour Bollinger Band mid-rail at 4390 and the morning's pullback low of 4380. With gold having clearly broken upward and the US Dollar Index trending lower, following the trend with long positions appears to be the safer approach. For intraday trading, the recommendation is to prioritize buying on dips and only consider short positions at higher resistance levels.
One point to watch is this week's high of 4471. Any touch of this level during the week could be considered for a short trade. However, if a strong breakout occurs, it would validate a momentum chase for the 4500 resistance level. Gold Strategy: Current live price is 4413. On a pullback, buying at 4401 and again at 4391 is advised, with a stop loss at 4380, targeting 4422, 4435, then 4447. For initial tests of 4450-4457, consider initiating short positions in batches, with a stop loss at 4463, targeting 4435 and 4420. For conservative shorts, place an order at 4463, add to the position at 4470, with a stop at 4476, targeting 4440 and 4420.
Moving to the crude oil market analysis, the price movement during the Asian session has been sluggish, making it difficult to confirm direction or momentum. The primary reference at the moment is the 4-hour SAR parabola indicator, which shows resistance in the 91.8-92.6 range. As long as there is no solid daily close above this area, the bias remains bearish. Should a decisive break occur, an acceleration in upward movement is anticipated. Technically, the current price is trading above the 1-hour Bollinger Band mid-rail but is capped by the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail. This suggests a short-term consolidation range of roughly 90-92.6. Given that the weekly Bollinger Band mid-rail has already been broken, there is a personal lean towards an upward breakout attempting new highs.
However, it's essential to consider the alternative scenario. If oil prices remain capped below 92.6 and fail to breach after repeated attempts, a downward correction is possible. A break below the 90 handle would then open the door to test support at 88.9 and 87.6. Predicting today's session, a scenario involving an initial dip would provide more conviction for a move higher during the US evening session. The bullish case is supported by the double-positive data from Wednesday's API and EIA inventory reports. The visible resistance stands at the 95 level, and trading updates will be provided once the actual price breaks above 92.6. Oil Strategy: Current live price is 91.1. On an intraday bounce, consider short positions in the 91.8-92.2 region, with a stop loss at 92.8, targeting 90.5 and 89.5. For longs, consider buying at 89, add to the position at 88.2, and further at 87.6, with a stop at 87, targeting 91, 93, then 95. If a rebound initially tests 95, short positions can be considered with a stop at 95.9, targeting 93.5 and 91.5.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk based on their individual circumstances.