Soybean and rapeseed meal markets strengthened in Tuesday's trading session, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea region providing upward momentum. International soybean prices rose, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions, and this supported domestic futures. The peak import season for soybeans in the third quarter has not yet passed, leaving physical supply ample. Downstream purchasing activity remained subdued, focused mainly on immediate needs, causing physical markets to follow the futures gains passively. A tug-of-war between near-term and longer-dated contracts suggests traders should monitor capital flows closely.
In the vegetable oils sector, Malaysian palm oil futures rose, tracking broader market strength. Export data remained weak, with high-frequency numbers indicating Malaysian palm oil exports fell between 6.5% and 14.9% month-on-month in August. Indonesia left its September export tax unchanged. Higher prices for Canadian rapeseed and US soybean oil, combined with resilient demand and concerns over oilseed yields, pushed prices upward. Escalating US-Iran tensions and fears of Middle East supply disruptions sent crude oil soaring, which also lifted vegetable oil prices. Domestic oils rallied with the external markets, hitting fresh highs with strong capital inflows, and outperforming protein meals. The pattern of weaker near-term contracts versus stronger deferred ones is unlikely to change soon, with key focus on Strait of Hormuz shipping and consumption levels.
Live hog futures continued their downward trend, with the main November 2026 contract falling 2.26% to close at 11,685 yuan per ton. Physical prices also declined, with the national average dropping to 11.14 yuan per kilogram. After the conclusion of school-opening stocking, demand softened, while farmers remained keen to market their hogs, pulling spot prices lower. As futures have corrected towards prior lows, a short-term technical rebound is possible. Attention is now directed at spot price movements and market sentiment for further guidance.
Egg futures maintained a sideways pattern, with the main October 2026 contract closing 0.55% lower at 3,765 yuan per 500 kilograms. Physical prices stabilized after recent declines, holding at 4.96 yuan per jin, as downstream buying remained consistent. Futures continue to trade within a range, with the next directional move dependent on demand shifts in the spot market.
Corn futures saw positions reduced in an adjusting session, closing with a small bearish candle, though prices remain elevated. Physical trading in northeast China was mediocre; even with last week's price gains, traders remain in loss-making positions and are adjusting their sales. With new-crop corn approaching, market attention is rising, particularly in Liaoning where production may fall, so the timing of farmer sales will be crucial. North China prices were stable within a narrow band. Supply-side pressure persists, set to intensify as the new harvest nears. Downstream buyers are steady, purchasing on a need-basis, and the market is expected to remain soft ahead of new crop arrivals. Quotes in the marketing areas stabilized slightly, showing a clear divergence between sentiment and actual deal volumes. The futures rebound has warmed the physical market atmosphere, but its boost to real trading has been limited, with downstream enterprises maintaining a cautious stance and only stocking essential quantities. Overall, capital rotation within the agricultural sector requires close monitoring, and one must be wary of price pullbacks from elevated levels if speculative money exits.