摩根大通交易团队因美联储主席鹰派言论放弃短期美股看涨预期

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1 hour ago

美联储主席沃什发表鹰派讲话后,市场对年内加息的押注意愿增强,摩根大通交易团队随即调整立场,放弃短期看涨美股的策略,并预计未来几周将维持"战术性谨慎"态度。

由摩根大通美国市场情报主管Andrew Tyler带领的团队表示,利率前景的不确定性构成阻力,因此在美联储9月16日政策会议之前暂时搁置看涨观点。不过,该团队仍认为整体市场将保持韧性,因经济数据和企业盈利等基本面因素提供一定支撑。

沃什上周五在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上指出,通胀压力尚未真正缓解。Tyler表示,一旦美联储启动加息,交易员将难以预判潜在加息周期的幅度与持续时间。与前任相比,沃什在利率政策上提供的前瞻性指引相对有限。

Tyler在周一给客户的报告中写道:"我们正转向战术性谨慎或中性观点,这意味着股市基本面仍然强劲,但短期因素可能导致市场以横盘震荡为主。"他认为,利率不确定性、9月季节性走弱以及人工智能主题交易动能减弱,均为近期市场面临的主要压力来源,并指出当前股票净仓位整体处于中性水平。

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