Investors are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting.
That is up from 37% a week ago, according to CME Group data. The jump in rate expectations is a major driver behind the rise in U.S. Treasury yields.
Investors increasingly believe central banks like the Fed that have been waiting to see if inflation spurred by war with Iran eases will be pressed to act to contain price pressures. Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating in recent days, pushing oil prices higher.
A majority of investors now believe the Fed will raise rates again after this month and before the end of the year.
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