Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1054 ET - U.S. corporate valuations face pressure, despite posting strong earnings, due to elevated global bond yields, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. "In parts of the market where expectations are stretched, even beat-and-raise earnings may not be enough," he says. Companies with stronger cash flow, prudent capital expenditure, and are underpriced look attractive in the current environment, however. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1053 ET--The latest data suggests Canadian exports were already starting to wane in July, even before the new 50% U.S. tariffs hit, which will probably be a slight negative to GDP in the third quarter, reckons CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham. Exports in July fell for the first time in six months. Grantham adds the rise in imports, technically a negative for GDP, likely represents restocking activity that will show as a positive for inventories. The economist says efforts to front-run U.S. tariffs that hit in August may bring a temporary spike in exports of some items next month, before easing again in September. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1051 ET - Canadian net trade looks to have been a drag on GDP at the start of the third quarter, since the sharp narrowing of the goods-trade surplus in July was due to a fall in export volumes as well as lower energy and metal prices, Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis says. The roughly C$800 million surplus was considerably below consensus expectations for about C$3 billion. The result is that risks to Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in July now lie slightly to the downside, Curtis says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1040 ET - The Japanese yen builds on earlier gains versus the U.S. dollar. The dollar loses 2% to hit a one-month low of 155.32 yen, taking it close to the Aug. 3 low of 155.21 yen. The yen's rise comes amid chatter that authorities could again intervene in foreign-exchange markets. "Dollar/yen has continued to decline, as markets remain hesitant to test the Japanese and U.S. authorities' resolve to defend the yen," says BNY's Geoffrey Yu in a note. The dollar also extends falls after Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed to signs of disinflation, which he said might leave him inclined to hold interest rates this month. The DXY dollar index falls to an 8-day low of 98.948. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Luxury home-sale prices in Miami rose 18% year-over-year in July, the biggest increase of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, Redfin says. That's followed by Tampa, where prices increased 15.4%. Luxury prices are growing at least three times faster in those Florida metros as they are in the U.S. as a whole, which posted a 5.3% uptick in July. Non-luxury prices fell 1.3% in Miami, and they were essentially unchanged in Tampa. Luxury home prices are rising on both Florida coasts even as non-luxury prices stagnate, fueled by an influx of wealthy buyers snapping up high-end properties across the state. Affluent Americans are drawn to Florida for its favorable tax environment, warm weather and waterfront lifestyle, keeping demand for luxury homes strong even as the broader housing market softens. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1010 ET - New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 2.1% from a week earlier, Redfin says. That's their highest level in four years. The total number of homes for sale also ticked up. Active listings rose 0.4% week-over-week in welcome news for house hunters, who increasingly have more options and negotiating power. But demand isn't matching the uptick in supply. Pending home sales were essentially flat from a week earlier, dipping to their lowest level since February. High housing costs are the biggest hurdle for prospective buyers. The typical U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year-over-year, while the average weekly mortgage rate was 6.66%, near its highest level in the last year. But median U.S. asking price inched down 0.1%, a sign that sellers may be adjusting their expectations as buyers negotiate and push back against high costs. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1009 ET - Credit assets offer attractive income due to elevated bond yields, making the assets appealing, Insight Investment's Brendan Murphy says in a note. Despite their expensive valuations, "the income available remains attractive enough to justify staying invested," Murphy says. Credit spreads have stayed resilient, despite the recent volatility in global stock and sovereign bond markets, supported by healthy corporate financial positions, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1002 ET - Final August purchasing managers' surveys reaffirm the eurozone's resilience against various economic threats, Oxford Economics' Rory Fennessy says in a note. Despite higher gas prices denting disposable spending and some inventory-induced strength in the second quarter likely to unwind, some upside growth risks in the current quarter appear to be materializing, he says. "We will slightly upgrade our near-term GDP forecasts in our September forecast round," he says. The eurozone composite PMI was 52.0 in August, the same as July. "Manufacturing is showing little signs of unwinding the resilience shown throughout the second quarter, and while the improvement in services growth may have stalled somewhat, the sector remains in an overall healthy position," Fennessy says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0935 ET - Canadian PM Mark Carney has pushed trade diversification as a means to rebuild an economy dealing with a protectionist Trump administration. Trade data indicate that is underway in a notable way. Merchandise-trade figures for July show the level of non-US exports hit a record high of C$25.6 billion--or a 56% increase from January of last year, when President Trump began his second term. During the same period, the value of U.S.-bound exports dropped 11.5%, to C$50.5 billion. Historically, about three-quarters of Canadian exports are U.S. bound. In July, that share stood at 66.4%. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

0925 ET - Treasury yields are on pace for a second consecutive daily decline, as markets trim odds of an interest rate increase this month to 50% from 63%. The drop in yields happens even as the factors driving them to recent highs remain in place. Crude futures rise 1%, with Brent reaching $96, keeping inflation fears alive. The U.S. trade deficit widens less than forecast in July, to $88.6 billion. Weekly jobless claims are little changed, at 206,000. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.5% as the greenback weakens 2% against the yen amid intervention chatter. The 10-year yield drops to 4.744% from 4.781% overnight. The two-year slips to 4.317% from 4.376%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0859 ET - Traders ignored some key passages from the Bank of Canada's policy decision that signal no imminent change in the policy rate, says David Rosenberg, economist and head of Rosenberg Research. Canada yields moved higher following the decision due to Governor Tiff Macklem's heightened concern about inflation risks. Rosenberg notes BOC described solid 2Q growth as influenced by temporary factors, and acknowledged heightened uncertainty due to an escalating US-Canada trade conflict. "Hardly an endorsement of a bullish macro backdrop," Rosenberg says. He adds the BOC says labor demand "remains subdued," and that spare capacity remains. The day wording like that is absent from BOC communications "will be the day that we will need to prepare for a shift" in policy, Rosenberg says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0852 ET - Gold prices extend gains in early U.S. trade, supported by a weaker dollar and as Treasury yields decline from multi-year highs. New York futures are up 2.4% to $4,522.30 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.6% to 99.01, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Traders now await the release of U.S. jobs data this week, which could further shape expectations for the Federal ​Reserve's monetary policy decision this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently price in a 60% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

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