Reddit's contracts to sell its data to Google expire early next year, and one Wall Street analyst isn't panicking.
Shares of the social-media company rose on Wednesday after Baird analyst Colin Sebastian noted that the market has already "largely priced in" a weak or flat renewal of its existing contracts, meaning stock prices would likely hold steady if the deals are renewed near current terms.
Shares of Reddit, which Barron's featured as stock pick in late July, rose 9.3% to $158.10 on Wednesday. The company was also the second best-performing stock in the S&P 500. Since the stock pick, shares have fallen 13%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The social-media site has been in contract renewal talks with Alphabet's Google unit over licensing Reddit's content for artificial-intelligence training. The contract, which currently adds about $130 million to Reddit revenue, is set to expire early next year.
While Sebastian said that getting a weaker deal with Google won't hurt Reddit stock, scoring a better deal could increase its share price between $10 to $20.
Part of the friction in the Google negotiations lies in how Reddit's content should be displayed and linked to users. This could clash with the goals of AI search platforms, like Google and OpenAI, which aim to keep users on their own site and maximize their own advertising revenue, Sebastian wrote. Over the past four quarters, Reddit's advertising engine has amassed $2.6 billion in revenue.
A slowdown in user growth has also continued to impact Reddit. While daily active users around the globe increased 17% from the previous year in the first fiscal quarter and 18% in the second, the numbers are down from 31% and 21% growth, respectively, a year earlier.