Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1615 GMT - Wedbush Securities analysts forecast Uber Technologies' plans to cut 10% of its workforce could lead to about $1.75 billion in total run rate cost savings. "That said, we expect to see all or most of the savings reinvested, and less flowing through to the bottom line," the analysts say. They expect much of the savings will be put toward the company's growth initiatives. "In our view, this announcement strengthens our conviction in Uber's capacity to drive growth while maintaining its margin expansion trajectory," they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1502 GMT - Middle East-linked air-cargo routes remain under pressure even as global freight demand continues to grow, the International Air Transport Association says. Global cargo demand rose 3.9% on year in July, but traffic on the Europe-Middle East corridor fell 16.1% and Middle East-Asia volumes dropped 14.1%, marking a fifth consecutive month of contraction for both routes. Middle Eastern carriers overall recorded 1.7% demand growth while capacity increased 4%. Higher fuel prices and geopolitical tensions remain risks to the global cargo outlook, IATA says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1029 GMT - Volkswagen's Supervisory Board meeting Friday could prove consequential, not only for the company but for the broader European automotive industry, Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Rokossa writes. "German press reports suggest that three different restructuring proposals for the group's 2030 target picture remain under discussion: one from management, one from the Supervisory Board, and one backed by Lower Saxony." The outcome is critical for investors, Rokossa adds. Deutsche Bank says management must emerge from the process with both a clear mandate and the ability to act. In a fundamentally changed market environment, adapting the company to new realities is management's core responsibility, and the credibility of that mandate will be judged closely by capital markets, it adds. Shares fall 2.9%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0958 GMT - BMW's investor event later this month will probably showcase an evolutionary rather than a transformational strategy, Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Rokossa writes. "Most major strategic initiatives, including workforce reductions and efficiency measures, have already been announced, leaving limited scope for significant surprises, in our view." The bank expects BMW to refine its equity story around the Neue Klasse car model cycle, cost savings and efficiency gains, and resilient cash generation supporting continued shareholder returns. "At the same time, we would not be surprised to see management push out its 8%-10% medium-term margin target by around two years to early 2030s, reflecting a more challenging industry backdrop and a lower starting point." The bank rates BMW stock at buy with 90 euro target price. Shares fall 1.9% to 60.02 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0912 GMT - Rheinmetall's valuation now better reflects the risks that come for investors who hold shares in the German arms maker, MWB Research's Jens-Peter Rieck writes in a note to clients. The stock is down more than 30% since the year began after Germany scrapped a large project to procure F126 frigates. Rieck upgrades the rating on the stock to hold from sell to reflect a lower valuation and expectations that news flow should turn positive at the end of September. He says Rheinmetall could get a first round of orders valued at roughly 12.4 billion euros under Germany's Arminius program to procure armored vehicles. Rheinmetall shares trade 0.1% higher at 1,080.60 euros. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)

0910 GMT - Ryanair cutting its winter schedule should be a welcome move despite August's healthy traffic and load factor development and passenger growth levels being in line with guidance, Citi's Conor Dwyer says. The measure is intended to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices and will reduce fiscal 2027 passengers by 2 million to 214 million. The Irish budget airline also reiterated prior guidance that fares will come down "modestly," which Dwyer says will reduce worries that peak travel season airfares could fall by a mid-single-digit percentage. "Still elevated capacity growth heading into winter while fuel prices are so high has also been a key worry for investors, and so we see this is a welcome move by Ryanair." Shares are up 2.4% at 23.28 euros. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0849 GMT - The oil market is increasingly pricing the cost of an unresolved war, Phillip Nova'a Priyanka Sachdeva says in a note. The latest disruption is no longer limited to military escalation, as reports of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz bring the risk directly into the physical oil supply chain, the analyst notes. The most feasible outcome now looks like stretched negotiations and prolonged trouble for oil flows, rather than a quick resolution, she says. The longer the disruption continues, the greater the risk that higher crude prices become embedded into inflation expectations and eventually into monetary policy decisions, Sachdeva adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0846 GMT - Chip makers Infineon Technologies and STMicroelectronics are set for a durable recovery after years of slow sales due to semiconductor demand for artificial-intelligence data centers, cars and industrial equipment, Citi analysts write in a note to clients. Carmakers that amassed chips at the height of the pandemic have now used up most of their inventories and are once again placing orders to the benefit of Infineon and STMicroelectronics. "While both stocks remain highly correlated to broader semi and AI-related sentiment, we believe these trends should support a longer and more sustainable earnings recovery than reflected in expectations," analysts say. Infineon shares trade 0.4% lower at 55.29 euros, while STMicroelectronics shares are up 1.1% at 42.77 euros. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)

0845 GMT - The choice seems clear ahead of Volkswagen supervisory board's vote Friday on the next leg of the cost-cutting plan, Citi analysts write. Without further cost reductions, the German carmaker cannot defend its 26% EU market share, core brand margins will fade, free cash flow will disappear, and its debt rating could be reviewed, the bank says. That would mean the company having to cut spending sharply and close German factories anyway, the bank adds. Citi says it has supported Volkswagen since the appointment of Oliver Blume as CEO, sensing a willingness to do what needs to be done. "That remains the case." The bank retains its buy rating on the stock and 94 euro target price. Shares fall 2.5% to 72.25 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Oil prices hold onto Tuesday's gains after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, clouding prospects for a near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "These latest developments have underscored the lack of a realistic path towards normalizing maritime traffic through the Strait," says Ricardo Evangelista from brokerage ActivTrades. "The absence of a credible timeline is increasing investor anxiety." In early European trading, Brent crude is up 0.3% to $94.91 a barrel, while WTI futures are flat at $90.19 a barrel. Escalating tensions are also keeping refined-product markets, especially diesel, extremely tight. Disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian exports are pushing diesel refining margins to record levels, with strong seasonal demand and limited spare refining capacity likely to keep prices elevated and volatile, according to analysts. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0728 GMT - European natural-gas prices surged to their highest level since the end of 2022 as escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran fuel worries about prolonged disruptions to energy flows. Dutch front-month futures--Europe's benchmark--rise 2.3% to 73.85 euros a megawatt-hour in early European trading, and are up 25% on the month. Increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf are clouding prospects for a recovery in regional LNG exports, adding to concerns over Europe's gas supply as storage levels trail seasonal norms. Europe is currently a more profitable destination for LNG cargoes than Asia once shipping costs are taken into account, according to analysts at ING. But as the winter approaches, "competition between the two regions is likely to pick up, particularly if Qatari LNG remains largely absent from the market through year-end." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0147 GMT - Elevated oil prices, with a 1H 2027 forecast of $80/bbl, should support Petronas' earnings and potentially lift domestic offshore capital expenditure, CIMB Securities analyst Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly says in a note. Sustained prices could improve upstream project economics, encourage higher development spending, while greater cash-flow visibility may prompt operators to resume deferred brownfield and asset-integrity work, he says. Maintenance activity could therefore strengthen as oil prices stabilize, he adds. CIMB pegs Dayang Enterprise and MISC as top picks for their exposure to domestic capital expenditure and large-cap exposure, respectively. It keeps an overweight rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector.

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