Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
4 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2024 ET - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade as recent bond selloffs ease. Trading houses and financial stocks are leading the gains. Mitsubishi Corp. is up 3.6% and Nomura Holdings is 2.5% higher. The dollar is at 158.94 yen, down from Y159.63 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close, following weaker-than-expected U.S. private-sector jobs data. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is down 4.5 basis points to 2.965%. Investors are tracking bond yields and crude oil prices as well as developments in the Iran conflict. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.1% at 64373.74. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2020 ET - The yen consolidates against other Asian and G-10 currencies in early trade, but may be supported by lingering risks of FX intervention. The sharp yen rally overnight sparked speculation that the authorities conducted a "rate check" on the exchange rate, a precursor of intervention, CBA's Carol Kong says in a research report. The yen earlier strengthened Wednesday due to BOJ board member Takata's remarks raising prospects of "back-to-back rate hikes and potential for a larger-than-usual rate increase," the economist and currency strategist adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at 158.85 yen while the Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at 113.75 yen, LSEG data show.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2007 ET - JGBs rise in price terms in early Tokyo trade, buoyed by overnight gains across most U.S. Treasurys and the yen's strength. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem, while yen appreciation typically lowers import prices in Japan, easing pressure on consumer prices. Today's focus is likely to be on Japanese Finance Ministry's auction of about 600 billion yen of 30-year JGBs. "While high volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out, yields in the super-long sector look sufficiently high," Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a note. With expectations for demand from pension funds, the auction will likely go smoothly, the rates strategist adds. The 30-year JGB yield falls 7 bps to 4.095%.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1947 ET - Japanese stocks may remain rangebound as uncertainty over the Middle East and energy costs continues. Nikkei futures are up 0.1% at 64520 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.84 yen, down from Y159.63 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close, after weaker-than-expected U.S. private-sector jobs data. Investors are focusing on bond yields and crude oil prices as well as developments in the Iran conflict. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.9% to 64325.64 on Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1836 ET - SkyCity Entertainment is right to put its casino precinct in Adelaide under review, signals Forsyth Barr. "We think the divestment of Adelaide would be taken well by the market considering we calculate it has delivered A$420 million of cumulative net cash losses for SkyCity through its 25 years of ownership," analyst Paul Laxton Koraua says. An analysis of recent M&A transactions in the industry suggests there's demand for regional Australasian casino assets. Forsyth Barr says Iris Capital has been the most active in recent years. Iris Capital bought Cairns Casino for A$193 million, while purchasing Christchurch Casino from Skyline for NZ$102 million. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1832 ET [Dow Jones]--New Zealand's central bank is done raising the official cash rate after hiking by 25 basis points to 2.75% yesterday, contends Citi. This outlook is based on Citi's neutral rate estimate of 2.5-2.75%, below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's projection of 3% or higher. "We expect slowing activity indicators to prevent further hikes, as the ongoing negative output gap is incongruent with additional tightening," Citi says. "While risks are skewed toward more hikes, we believe market pricing for the OCR over the next 6-12 months remains too high." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1603 ET - Treasury yields decline as a global bonds selloff eases a bit even while its key drivers remain in place. Oil futures rise 1%, keeping inflation fears alive. The G-20 summit ends without a clear path to reduce massive government debt that muddles the long-term economic outlook. U.S. private-sector job creation disappoints, in the ADP report ahead of Friday's payrolls. Odds of a Fed hike slip to 64% from 67%, according to CME. The 10-year yield slips 0.002 percentage point to 4.793% and the two-year falls 0.008 p.p. to 4.383%, after both reached multi-year highs overnight. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1558 ET - The Japanese yen's sudden strengthening against the dollar this morning isn't big enough to indicate an intervention, Corpay's Karl Schamotta says in an email. He attributes the move, instead, to " traders jumping at shadows." The USDJPY trades at 158.93, after having fallen as low as 158.24 in morning trade. "The yen briefly gapped higher, but then seemed to hit a wall before reversing direction, and is now gradually reverting lower," Schamotta says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1549 ET - Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem played down the impact interest-rate cuts can have in helping an economy dealing with elevated energy prices and heightened uncertainty about trade with the U.S., says Nomura economist Ruchir Sharma. During a press conference, Macklem "reiterated that monetary policy cannot offset the structural effects of tariffs," Sharma says. Macklem is of the view that the policy rate at 2.25% is providing some stimulus to the economy, Sharma adds. He tells clients the governor's reference to firms' adaptability to the turbulent trade environment indicate the BOC is not overly concerned about a deep drop in growth stemming from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory duties. Nomura "now see risks more clearly skewed toward tightening" in Canada, Sharma says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1532 ET - Macquarie Group economist David Doyle is now penciling in 1.25 percentage points of rate increases from the Bank of Canada following a review of the central bank's policy decision and Gov. Tiff Macklem's press-conference remarks. Doyle predicts the BOC benchmark rate to reach 3.5% by the end of 2027. He says Macklem played down the growth impacts from escalated US-Canada trade tensions, with the governor noting firms are learning to live with policy uncertainty. And Macklem "expressed several times greater concern" about the upside risks to inflation posed by the U.S.-Iran war, the Macquarie analyst adds. Doyle says private-sector real GDP growth is rebounding sharply, and trade diversification is already under way judging by goods exports data. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1516 ET - The dollar weakens against the Japanese yen, as intervention chatter returns to FX markets. The yen had been trading near 160 per dollar, a mark widely seen as a potential trigger for intervention. The USDJPY falls 0.91% to 158.94, its largest one-day decline since Aug. 19. Japanese and American authorities have since indicated readiness to prop up the yen, including this week at the G-20 summit. Bannockburn's Marc Chandler says in an email the market chatter is that the Fed could have checked rates, a procedure that could be seen as a preparation to intervene, although it's unclear if it was the catalyst for today's move. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.2%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1458 ET - The Bank of Canada "very clearly cracked open the door" to raise interest rates, including as soon as October, says Derek Holt, Bank of Nova Scotia. Holt has been steadfast for months about the possibility of BOC rate hikes this year. Holt notes that Gov. Tiff Macklem was asked directly at a press conference about multiple rate increases to contain inflation. "Macklem not only did not bat it away, he responded in the affirmative," says Holt. He adds Macklem remarks represent a "total narrative shift" from the central bank, which had previously highlighted slow growth, uncertainty over inflation, and less alarm over inflation spreading to non-energy goods.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10