The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1137 GMT - European natural-gas prices are forecast to end this year at 80 euros per megawatt-hour, before falling to 40 euros by the end of 2027 due to constrained LNG supply and low storage levels, according to Capital Economics. TTF prices, Europe's benchmark, currently trade at 73 euros a megawatt-hour. "Warmer-than-usual weather over the northern hemisphere winter could limit heating-related demand and help relieve upward pressure on natural gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia," says David Oxley, chief commodities economist. "But any increase in attacks on ships using the Strait could feasibly result in flows of crude oil falling back again from current levels and further delay the normalization of energy shipments out of the Middle East." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1127 GMT - Brent crude futures rise to their highest level in six weeks as concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East flows keep the geopolitical risk premium high. In afternoon European trading, the global oil benchmark is up 1% to $96.62 a barrel after having topped $97, while WTI rises 1.6% to $92.44 a barrel. Both benchmarks are up more than 10% on the week following fresh strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is quietly extending troop deployments in the Middle East, signaling the conflict with Iran could drag into next year. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1113 GMT - The Debt Management Office's sale of 900 million pounds ($1.2 billion) in September 2049 index-linked gilts on Thursday attracted solid demand, with a bid to cover ratio of 3.58 times. The real yield on the index-linked gilt--which offers protection against inflation--stood at 2.496%, with a price of 89.16 pounds. High energy prices helped boost demand for the bonds, even as conventional 10-year and 30-year gilt yields hit multiyear highs this week. "We think the case for owning linkers here outright is much stronger than nominal gilts, given the backdrop of a soft domestic economy and rising energy prices," RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1107 GMT - Brent crude is forecast to end the year at $100 a barrel, before falling back to $70 a barrel by the end of 2027, as the recovery in Middle East energy flows is now expected to be delayed, according to Capital Economics. Rather than returning to prewar levels during the second half, the current assumption is that the existing status quo will persist through the remainder of the year, with energy flows only normalizing in early 2027. This outlook implies further draws on global oil inventories over the coming months, although the pace of inventory declines is expected to slow compared with earlier in 2026, says David Oxley, chief commodities economist. Brent currently trades at $97 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1059 GMT - Gulf inflation has remained relatively subdued despite sharp energy-price volatility, but renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities risk driving price pressures higher, Kamco Invest says. Continued conflict is likely to keep oil prices elevated and add to inflation through higher energy, shipping and supply costs, potentially leading to higher interest rates and slower economic growth, Kamco says. Saudi inflation was 1.8% on year in July and Qatar's was 2.2% in June, while Dubai inflation stood at 5.3% in July, reflecting stronger transport, food and housing costs. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0900 GMT - Malaysia's telecommunications sector is expected to see improvement in core EPS sequentially in 3Q, supported by seasonality, mobile monetization and fiber connectivity demand, CIMB Securities analyst Choong Chen Foong says in a note. The outlook remains supported by a potential review of telecom access prices. This is likely to begin in September or October and conclude by December or January 2027, he notes. The transfer of shares in Malaysia's state-backed 5G infrastructure firm Digital Nasional from the Ministry of Finance to Maxis, CelcomDigi and YTL Power International could be completed by end-3Q, providing greater clarity on DNB's net losses and the telcos' plans to mitigate the impact on earnings over the next two to three years, he adds. CIMB maintains an overweight rating on the sector.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0815 GMT - Venezuela crude oil production isn't expected to return to pre-2018 levels of above 2 million barrels a day over the next few years, despite renewed interest from U.S. and European oil companies, Goldman Sachs says. Production stood at around 1.1 million barrels a day in July, while crude and condensate exports have risen 400,000 barrels a day year-on-year, with the U.S. overtaking China as the largest buyer. Chevron and Eni are among the companies expected to expand operations, supporting a gradual increase in output. However, significant infrastructure damage and an unreliable power grid remain major constraints, making a rapid recovery difficult and costly, analysts at the U.S. bank say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - Persian Gulf oil flows appear higher than visible data suggest, although exports remain well below pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Accounting for "dark" tanker crossings, total Gulf exports are estimated at 15 million-16 million barrels a day, around two-thirds of pre-war levels, compared with visible flows of about 10 million barrels a day. The upward revision over the past two weeks appears to reflect more tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with tracking system signals switched off, analysts at the bank say. However, Red Sea flows have fallen by 4.5 million barrels a day in August as Saudi Arabia redirected shipments from Yanbu to eastern ports amid Houthi-related security concerns, Goldman data shows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0800 GMT - Furukawa Electric's earnings are likely to be boosted by cooling products used at data centers, Jefferies analysts say in a note. As artificial-intelligence servers consume more power, cold plates and liquid-cooling systems are likely to drive earnings growth in the coming years, the U.S. bank says. Jefferies forecasts operating profit to grow 37% annually over the four years ending March 2030. The bank raises its target price for Furukawa to 10,500 yen from Y9,000 and maintains a buy rating on the stock. Shares close 3.7% lower at Y3,613. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0729 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trading despite concerns that the U.S.-Iran war could drag for much longer following renewed military strikes between the two sides this week. Brent crude futures fall 0.7% to $94.91 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.7% to $90.37 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled higher in the previous trading session, with Brent climbing above $95. "Shipping markets now price a 'no-Mideast-deal' status quo for longer," analysts at Goldman Sachs say. "However, increasing market adaptability to the conflict, including a rise in dark transits and the price sensitivity of China crude imports, will likely continue to moderate the upside to crude prices, even in the case of prolonged disruptions in the Middle East." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0659 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in opening trade, taking a breather after hitting successive multiyear highs in previous sessions. Lower oil prices help push yields lower, as well as comments by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams who indicated in an interview with CNBC that he doesn't see clear-cut evidence right now that the Fed must raise interest rates to respond to persistent inflation. Bond supply will be significant on Thursday, coming from Spain, France and Ireland. The 10-year German Bund yield, which rose to a 15-year high of 3.395% on Wednesday, falls 1.4 basis points to 3.364%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0638 GMT - LG Energy Solution's energy storage system shipments are expected to surge in North America next year, Yuanta Securities Korea's Lee An-na and Bae Jong-sung say. The analysts expect the South Korean battery maker's ESS shipments in the region to jump to 53-60 gigawatt hours in 2027 from 39-44GWh in 2026, citing large customers including Tesla and Terra-Gen. LG's ESS production capacity there is likely to rise to 55-65GWh in 2027 from 50GWh in 2026, they say. LG is boosting production of ESS lithium iron phosphate batteries at its factories in Michigan, as it shifts electric-vehicle battery assembly lines to ESS battery production.