End of RBNZ Tightening Cycle in Sight

Dow Jones
5 hours ago

0816 GMT - New Zealand's central bank has delivered what Nomura economists expect will the penultimate rate hike of the cycle as policymakers assess the impact of prior tightening. The RBNZ struck a measured tone that suggests fewer rate hikes ahead relative to market pricing, Nomura's Andrew Ticehurst says. It said core inflation, expected wage growth and inflation expectations, remain consistent with inflation returning to target by late-2027, and that it's appropriate to gradually remove monetary stimulus. Nomura also sees the RBNZ's forecast revisions as more dovish than hawkish, including a trimmed GDP growth profile, modest increases to many unemployment projections, and broadly unchanged inflation and OCR views. All that's consistent with Nomura's base case for a final 25bp hike in December that would take the cash rate to a "neutralish" 3.00%.

 

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